Wednesday, 18 February 2015

Kung Hey Fat Choi

Happy New Year to all my Chinese friends! I will be visiting Asia later this year and look forward to seeing some of you again.


Friday, 13 February 2015

TBonds Have Zippers!

Today's trade is the TBonds. I used to trade a lot of Bonds in the 1980's both off floor and on the LIFFE market as a Local in the pit. Today's trade is pretty self explanatory. I love zippers. Price usually runs along a zipper.


I'm trading more TBonds again as I have a training session under way and my student will be trading them. I'm making dual use of the training by recording them for inclusion in Part 2 of the eBook. We worked on the tools and theory this week and next we will embark on live markets. These will be recorded too. There will be other markets that we look at. This week did watched a lot of DAX and some ES but we'll look at NQ and perhaps Gold and Light Crude and maybe the Euro future.

Thursday, 5 February 2015

Day Traders Rule!

I've really been enjoying these markets. Up one day and down the next. There are good intra day moves. The longer term traders are having a tough time. With all that is going on in the world I expect this volatility to continue all year in the stock indices, forex, crude and gold, not to mention the interest rate futures. We have a plethora of markets to trade to suit the speed requirement and time zone of everyone.

Market Profile is a key part of understanding both directional bias and where trades should be looked for. As the great Mark Twain wrote:
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.
There seems to be more misinformation out there about Market Profile than most technical analysis tools and methods. I guess its because its something very real, very good that was developed by a trader not by a smooth talking salesman. Lots of people have hopped on the band wagon and given their own interpretation. Pete Steidlmayer believed in self discovery. He didn't clearly tell his students, including me, what to do. As  said before. I discovered the existence of Market Profile in the early 1980s and immediately ordered the manual from the CBOT. It was useless for me. I then met pete and studies under him. Still didn't get it. Met Jim Dalton and took his class. Still lost. Went back to Pete. I knew there was something very valuable there but could not see what. It was a few years after that the penny finally dropped.

To learn how to use Market Profile effectively I believe that you need to observe. But I also think that you can save lots of time and money if someone shows you how he uses it. You can then know what to look for. The book and videos will do all that and more. Part 1 is almost ready and Part 2 is going well.

Tuesday, 3 February 2015

Splitting Market Profile

This chart of today's ES shows the importance of context and splitting the Profile.

The high and low support and resistance of the tradeable distribution is only visible with the split. All I had to do when price was near those extremes was to look for the reversal of the order flow.


Wednesday, 28 January 2015

Widowmaker?

The DAX used to be my nemesis many years ago. I traded other markets that supported my DAX habit. It was not a cheap habit. But I persevered and the DAX became my bread and butter.

If you look at today's pic you can see how wonderfully it behaves with the MarketProfile. Of course you have to get the split done to see where the real support and resistance is. There are 3 S & R areas that the price tested so far on the chart.  I had the price near the high of the day so far marked on my chart as a selling point as soon as the market opened. The VAH of yesterday's split distribution was a buy point the first time. As price was accepted in the VA, the POC became a target.

ALL these areas had to be qualified by order flow and additional  when price was there.




Monday, 12 January 2015

Contex, Context, Context

Since starting this blog in 2009, I've been emphasizing and emphasizing that context was king. Context is even more important, if that is possible, when using the latest technologies to identify order flow. Identifying what "they" are doing depends on context. Is the order flow responsive or initiating? BIG difference. The difference between a profitable trade and a losing one.

Today's DAX is a great example. You can see on the Profile that price started going up the zipper. The order flow bars showed buying and selling but it was the BUYING that was where the power was as you could see not only from the price action and trade deltas but from the context of the Profile and the other context tools that you can see on the bar chart.

The eBook is going well. Part 1 will be available FREE on Amazon once it is ready. However, Amazon does not support embedded videos on self published books so Part 1 will have static pictures rather than the videos that you will see in Part 2. Part 1 is a complete overview of what I am doing now and how I do it. Experienced traders will be able to use the information in Part 1 to evolve their trading methods and styles to incorporate many of the things I do if they think it fits them.


Monday, 1 December 2014

The Order Flow Becomes Clear with the right Tools

Not much to say about today's pic. It says it all. We now have all the tools we need to see what "they" are doing. The old saying: "None so blind as they that will not see" comes to mind.

If you see selling and it doesn't go down or if you see buying and it doesn't go up, the context gives you the setting, then you can see what we saw on the floor. It was us locals that took the other side of those trades and I think its still us from off floor.